Forecasting for your business
Since 2003, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index has provided a quarterly comprehensive report of the opinions and projections of more than 1,400 CEOs of small- to mid-sized companies about the economy, their hiring and investment plans, and prospects for their revenues and profitability.
The Vistage CEO Confidence Index has been a proven predictor of GDP, two quarters in advance.
U.S. small and mid-sized businesses represent the most vital component of the nation’s economy. This sector creates 75% of all new jobs and generates 50% of all national revenue. The opinions of these business leaders provide a clear snapshot of current economic, market and industry trends and demonstrate their plans for growth over the next 12 months. These CEO and leadership insights provide a leading indicator for employment, capital expenditure, sales, and revenue and profit trends.
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History of Vistage CEO Confidence Index
The Vistage CEO Confidence Index began in Q2 2003 when 1041 Vistage member CEOs responded to a Vistage survey, creating the baseline against which the index is measured. Each quarter, CEOs are asked the same set of questions about the state of the U.S. economy, their revenues and profits, investment and hiring plans, as well as questions relating to current business issues. The first six questions make up the components of the Vistage CEO Confidence Index score.
How is the Vistage CEO Confidence Index Calculated?
The survey is fielded online and updated for a period of 7-10 days every month during the year. All component questions are scored as the percent giving favorable replies minus the percent unfavorable plus 100. The Vistage CEO Confidence Index is the sum of the components calculated as a percentage of the level recorded in the 2nd quarter 2003 survey. The results are analyzed by Dr. Richard Curtin, the chief analyst at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.
About Dr. Curtin
Dr. Richard Curtin is a Research Professor and has been the Director of the Surveys of Consumers at the University of Michigan since 1976. Professor Curtin’s monthly report on consumer confidence is one of the most closely followed economic indicators, with findings from his research extensively reported in the media. His research is widely used by businesses and financial institutions as well as by federal agencies responsible for monetary and fiscal policies. Data from the Surveys of Consumers is an official component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators.