Despite Shutdown, Small Business Confidence Hits 9-Month High [WSJ/Vistage Nov 2025]

While economic sentiment remains dim among small business leaders, prospects and plans for their businesses have gained new momentum. Despite rising costs and the government shutdown, the WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index rose to 90.2, driven by an increased optimism in revenue and profit expectations.

While the environment may not be booming, it is steadier and aligns with forecasts for accelerating growth in the year ahead. That said, the snag remains that an increasing number of small business leaders believe the economy has definitively worsened compared to 12 months ago (51%), a return to pessimism seen earlier this year when tariffs were confounding them.

The data reveals a growing divide in sentiment as small business leaders separate the current economic climate from the realities they face in their businesses. Leaders are making decisions rooted in realism — with growth expectations tempered by costs and pricing constraints.

Inflation’s Ongoing Grip on Small Business Strategy

One of the realities that small businesses continue to face is rising costs. The vast majority, 91% of small business leaders, report some level of inflationary impact. While this is not new, clear themes emerged from specific impacts reported in the survey:

• Vendor increases are the top cost pressure, with nearly 7 in 10 small business leaders citing higher supplier costs. This extends into other pass-through costs, says Shannon Oelkers, principal consultant and owner of Integrity Environmental, LLC, in Eagle River, Alaska. “Any pass-through or reimbursable costs like lab samples, equipment rentals, airfare, and hotels are much, much higher. Over 25% higher for a lot of our reimbursables.”
• Labor costs and retention pressures affect small businesses across industries, regardless of tariffs; 6 in 10 cite increased wages as a challenge. As Javier Espinoza, managing partner of Espinoza & Brock, PLLC, in San Antonio, Texas, notes: “The most difficult thing has been wages to maintain top talent … we have to increase wages to retain the talent and that applies to every position we have, which increases our costs and decreases profitability.”
• Half of small businesses (50%) have responded by raising their prices, balancing protecting margins and retaining customers. Aaron Cother, managing director of Lorica Capital in Dallas, Texas, says, “Steel and labor costs have risen significantly. In response, we’ve raised prices to pass costs through, renegotiated select supplier relationships, and overall improved our margins.”
• Demand drag is real, with 31% noting decreased sales — a sign that price sensitivity is rising across customer segments. Taking this data into account, the greater proportion expecting increased revenues indicates a slowdown in growth.
• Health care costs continue to climb. As revealed in last month’s analysis, the rising cost of health care is a challenge for small businesses. “Health care costs went up over 20% this year and over 15% last year. It’s a huge challenge to our small business community,” says Jill Knittel, president & CEO of JK Executive Strategies in Rochester, New York.

How are small businesses maintaining margins?

As noted, many small business leaders are adjusting their prices to preserve margins. Other efforts include streamlining operations and delaying non-essential investments. Others are absorbing costs to retain market share, with some concerned that additional price increases could further harm demand.

Top questions for small business leaders:

As they work toward finishing the year strong while focusing on the year ahead, leaders should ask themselves these key questions:

• How are we defending our margin? With rising costs on all sides, it’s crucial to understand the profitability levers — pricing, efficiency, and product mix — and manage them closely.
• How agile are our investments? Look for incremental, staged investments that offer flexibility. Delay doesn’t mean inaction; it means optimizing timing and scale.
• How transparent is our customer communication? Whether raising prices or adjusting service levels, customers value transparency. Honest conversations help manage expectations.
• How flexible is our supply chain? Now is the time to reduce reliance on vulnerable suppliers, cross-train teams, and ensure financial buffers are in place.

November Highlights

The November WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index was calculated from an online survey sent to CEOs and other key leaders who are active U.S. Vistage members. The survey, conducted between November 3 and 11, 2025, collected data from 382 respondents with annual revenues ranging from $1 million to $20 million. The Index is calculated based on favorable minus unfavorable responses from this set of standard questions, plus 100, anchored to June 2012 = 100.

• Current Economy: Just over 1 in 5 small businesses (18%) say the U.S. economy is in better shape than a year ago, while the proportion that believes it is worse has grown from 43% to 51% in one month.
• Future Economy: Looking ahead, business leaders remain divided on the U.S. economy, with 30% expecting improvement, 29% anticipating no change, and 37% expecting worsening conditions. These levels represent a fairly steady outlook across the year.
• Revenue Projections: Optimistic revenue projections hit the highest level since January, with more than two-thirds (67%) of small business leaders anticipating revenue growth in the year ahead. Meanwhile, just 11% anticipate declines, also one of the lowest levels of the year.
• Profitability Projections: In line with the increase in revenue projections, the proportion of small business leaders expecting increased profitability rose to 57% in November, up 15 points from last month. More notably, the proportion who expect declines dropped 10 points to 15%.
• Fixed Investment Plans: One-third (33%) of small businesses plan to increase fixed investment spending in the next 12 months, while 12% expect to scale back. These conservative figures have seen little change over the course of the year.
• Workforce Expansion Plans: Workforce expansion plans rose 8 points, with 55% of small business leaders indicating that they plan to add staff in the next 12 months. Just 5% are planning reductions in the same period, a notable decline and the lowest since January.

To explore the full November 2025 WSJ/Vistage Small Business data set, visit our data center or download the infographic.

The December 2025 WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index will be calculated from responses to the Q4 Vistage CEO Confidence Index survey, conducted from December 1 to 15, 2025, among small businesses with $1-20 million in annual revenue.

0 views