CEO Confidence Continues to Cool in Q2 2025 as Hiring Plans Hit an All-Time Low

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Katie McWeeney | Vistage

Vistage’s Small and Midsize Business CEO Survey Reveals Economic Uncertainty Is Adding to Business Leaders’ Burnout

SAN DIEGO, July 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — Small and midsize business (SMB) CEOs’ confidence in the economy continued to edge down in Q2 2025, according to the latest CEO Confidence Index from CEO coaching and peer advisory organization Vistage.

The Index dipped to 77.2 in Q2, down from 78.5 in Q1 2025 and significantly below its 100.8 reading in Q4 2024. Driven by record-low workforce expansion plans and the negative impacts of tariffs and trade policy, today’s confidence level is 3.2 points below the 12-quarter average after seeing a temporary spike in December 2024 due to post-election optimism.

“Depending on your source, the U.S. economy is either booming or on the brink of collapse, but the reality lies somewhere in between,” said Joe Galvin, Vistage’s chief research officer. “CEO confidence continued to slip in June, returning to the lower end of the post-pandemic range. Ongoing uncertainty, coupled with the growing impact of AI on workforce productivity, has driven workforce expansion to record lows as CEOs assume a more risk-averse posture and increasingly consider workforce reductions. With so much disruption, it’s no surprise that our survey reveals many CEOs are experiencing burnout; however, forecasts indicate that the business landscape is unlikely to become easier to navigate anytime soon. Leaders must focus on building the mental, physical, and emotional fortitude they need to lead their business forward successfully despite uncertainty.”

Since 2003, Vistage has measured the sentiment of SMB CEOs on a variety of economic and business factors each quarter. ITR Economics’ rate-of-change methodology has confirmed the Vistage CEO Confidence Index is a leading indicator of the U.S. Industrial Production Index nine months in advance, providing a view into the future.

Lauren Saidel-Baker, CFA and economist at ITR Economics, commented: “The margin equation has become critical for CEOs. Now is the time for business leaders to hyperfocus on efficiency gains to maximize their existing labor force and capacity.”

Q2 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index highlights include:

CEOs remain uncertain about economic conditions.

  • When asked how overall economic conditions have changed over the past year, 50% of SMB CEOs report that conditions have worsened. Just 17% said conditions have improved.
  • Respondents were divided when expressing their expectations for the economy 12 months from now: 33% expect it to worsen, 31% anticipate it will improve, and 32% expect it to remain the same. 
  • CEO optimism about what’s next for their business is waning. 54% expect their sales revenues will improve during the next 12 months (down 22 points from Q4 2024), and 41% anticipate their profitability will improve during that timeframe (down 20 points from Q4 2024).

Ongoing uncertainty is driving hiring plans to record lows.

  • 42% of CEOs expect to increase their workforce in the year ahead, down from 45% in Q1 and 23 points below the recent peak in Q4 2024.
  • Meanwhile, 13% of CEOs expect to decrease the size of their workforce over the next 12 months. While in line with Q1 2025, this level has only been seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and in recessions.

Despite the pause, tariffs remain a significant challenge for CEOs.

  • More than two-thirds (69%) of SMBs have been negatively impacted by trade and tariff policy changes, either directly or indirectly.
  • Of those that order goods from China, 44% of CEOs reported that their businesses are trying to accelerate shipments during the 90-day tariff pause.
  • Customer behavior has changed in response to tariff and trade policies, with 46% of CEOs reporting delays in the buying process, 32% finding that customers are evaluating more alternatives, and 28% saying the sales cycle has lengthened.

Business leaders are planning to hike prices.

  • Nearly half (49%) of CEOs plan to implement price increases in the next three months.
    • 79% expect to raise prices by more than four percent, including 11% who will raise prices by more than ten percent.
    • CEOs cited the rising cost of labor, materials, and overhead as well as tariffs and macroeconomic inflation as the primary drivers of price increases.

Persistent uncertainty is resulting in burnout among CEOs.

  • Forty percent of CEOs rate their work-life balance as “fair” or “poor,” and 68% report feeling burned out or emotionally exhausted at least “occasionally” over the last three months, including 21% who say they have experienced it “frequently.”
  • Forty percent of CEOs struggle to get the right amount of sleep, and 32% say they do not have intentional time built into their schedule to recharge mentally.
  • While 83% agree or strongly agree that movement plays a meaningful role in improving their patience, mood, and decision-making, 50% find that their schedule often interferes with their ability to exercise.

View the full results of the Q2 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index at: vistage.com/ceoindex

About the Vistage CEO Confidence Index
Established in 2003, the Vistage CEO Confidence Index surveys small and midsize business CEOs, presidents, and business owners about the U.S. economy every quarter. The Q2 2025 Vistage CEO Confidence Index includes responses from 1,537 U.S. CEOs surveyed between June 2 and 16, 2025. Using ITR Economics’ rate-of-change methodology, analysis has revealed that the Vistage CEO Confidence Index is a leading indicator of the U.S. Industrial Production Index 9 months in advance.

The Vistage CEO Confidence Index is recognized as the definitive voice of high-performing, high-integrity small and midsize business leaders. As a trusted resource, the Index provides world-class insights to inform decision-making for CEOs and other key leaders of small and midsize businesses.

For more Vistage CEO Confidence Index results, visit vistage.com/ceoindex

About Vistage Worldwide, Inc.
Vistage is the world’s largest CEO coaching and peer advisory organization for small and midsize businesses. For more than 65 years, we’ve been helping CEOs, business owners and key executives solve their greatest challenges through confidential peer groups and one-to-one executive coaching sessions. Today, more than 45,000 members in 40 countries rely on Vistage to help make better decisions for their companies, families and communities. The results prove it: Vistage CEO members grew their annual revenue on average by 4.6% in 2020, while nonmembers with comparable small and midsize businesses saw revenue decrease by 4.7%, according to a study of Dun & Bradstreet data. Learn more at vistage.com.

Media Contact
Katie McWeeney | Vistage
858.523.6875 | katie.mcweeney@vistage.com