Managing Technology through “The Hype Cycle”

Since Gartner introduced the “Hype Cycle” in 1995, technologists have been using it to evaluate emerging technologies.  Yet today, entrepreneurs can utilize the Hype Cycle principle more broadly to consider how technologies can combine within an organization’s ecosystem to foster competitive advantage.

The Hype Cycle has 5 phases; and it takes about 2 years for technologies to shift from one phase two the next:

Phase 1-The Technology Trigger

During the trigger phase there is significant media interest in a new technology. For internal systems, users fall in love with the perceived efficiencies or customer impacts. Current examples: Crowdsourcing, Big Data

Phase 2- The Peak of Inflated Expectations

In the second phase, users are unrealistic about the capabilities of a technology, how long it will take to implement and the return on investment.  Current Examples: 3D Printing, Private Cloud Computing

Phase 3 – The Trough of Disillusionment

In reaching the trough, users realize that technologies do not realize their potential, and become cynical about them. Current examples: Cloud Computing, Home Health Monitoring

Phase 4- The Slope of Enlightenment

During the next phase, users readjust their expectations so that they can realize more realistic outcomes and find more real world applications of various product features. Current examples: Mobile OTA Payments, Media Tablets

Phase 5- The Plateau of Productivity

Finally, when a technology is adopted, its bugs are repaired and users are trained. Over time, it becomes more stable and nuances are better understood.  Current examples:  Speech Recognition and Predictive Analysis

The promise of the Hype Cycle is to help executives filter through the noise and decipher which advances will be applicable to their businesses . The term “hype” is apply titled given our nature (as entrepreneurs) to be intellectually curious about things that are not fully proven.  The theory of the hype cycle suggests that first mover advantage has a dreadful downside; those who implement technologies too quickly are apt to be dissolutioned.  As the saying goes, “the devil is in the details.”

Our clients are constantly evaluating new tools, before they are fully understood.  Managers should be more thoughtful in vetting such opportunities and fully understanding their implications. Especially as companies move to a higher level of integration, they will be more selective on how they use technologies that must coexist with ERP systems and the like.

In evaluating a new technology, a sound cost-benefit analysis should be conducted by the managers who will use the product. The days of IT executing technology in a vacuum are over.

Source:  https://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp

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